Cincinnati football rewatch: What went wrong against UCF? (2024)

CINCINNATI — A Bearcats team that worked for uphill victories in recent weeks finally found itself on the wrong end of the scoreboard against UCF.

Cincinnati fell 25-21 to the Knights on the road Saturday in a game kept closer than it should have been thanks to a pair of second-half red zone fumbles by UCF. Here’s a look at what went wrong for the Bearcats, who have seen their point margin drop from 10 to four to two to minus-four, snapping a 19-game conference winning streak and altering the AAC standings in the process.

1. Cincinnati’s defense must solve its dual-threat QB struggles

There was plenty of angst directed toward a Bearcats offense that managed just 21 points, but a defense that gave up 505 total yards to UCF was the more alarming issue. And by now, the trend is clear. Against Arkansas, USF and UCF — the three opposing offenses that have highlighted the quarterback run game with a dual-threat QB — Cincinnati gave up at least 220 rushing yards to each, losing two of those games.

The Bearcats’ defense has given up 6 yards per play to those three teams; the other five opponents have averaged just 3.4 yards per play. Even if you throw out Kennesaw State — an FCS, triple-option offense — the average is still 3.4 yards. None of the other four teams rushed for more than 80 yards, so to simplify it to a general defensive shortcoming seems unfair, because the issue has been so specific to QB-run schemes. The Bearcats still rank sixth in the country overall at 4.3 yards per play allowed, but as Luke Fickell said after the UCF loss, the Knights exposed Cincinnati in a number of areas.

Credit to Gus Malzahn and UCF for a stellar offensive game plan that kept Cincinnati’s defense off balance by stretching it on the edges, hammering up the middle and throwing enough out of RPO looks to keep the secondary honest. It was enough to put the Bearcats on their heels, even when the quarterback wasn’t running as much. Starter John Rhys Plumlee had seven carries for 26 yards before leaving in the second quarter with a concussion, but backup Mikey Keene ran only once for 9 yards.

It wasn’t for lack of adjustments. The Bearcats ran an extra safety on the field instead of a nickel corner for much of the game. Linebacker Wilson Huber said it was added specifically for the Knights, presumably to add tackling without sacrificing too much speed against UCF’s typical fleet-footed, uptempo attack, but clearly didn’t work as well as hoped. For a unit that we’ve seen make the necessary alterations to stop the triple-option or UCF’s previous fast-paced scheme under the old regime, slowing dual-threat QBs has proven elusive this season.

I keep coming back to something linebacker Ty Van Fossen said after the USF game about the defense having to “change the math” with the quarterback involved in the run game. That’s the obvious challenge with an extra player to defend, and I wonder if — with Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant off to the NFL — the Bearcats don’t trust their corners enough to leave them on islands in man coverage on the outside, and therefore can’t sneak safeties into the box or linebackers into the gaps as much as they’d prefer. Injuries to starting defensive ends Malik Vann and Jabari Taylor (who missed Saturday after suffering a hamstring injury against SMU) have noticeably thinned the depth up front. UCF took full advantage of all of it.

The good news for Cincinnati is it doesn’t have a truly similar offensive attack left on the schedule, although Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt won’t hesitate to take off, running an average of 10 times per game. But you have to imagine the teams left on the schedule (aside from Navy) will look to exploit those same deficiencies until the Bearcats prove they can stop it.

2. Why didn’t Cincinnati go after Keene?

The other perplexing and frustrating aspect of UC’s defense against UCF was the inability to put any pressure on Keene, and the fact that to some degree, that was done by choice. Cincinnati is familiar with Keene, having faced him as a freshman last season playing for an injured Dillon Gabriel in the Bearcats’ 56-21 smackdown of the Knights at Nippert Stadium. But despite Keene taking his first snaps of the season on Saturday, UC didn’t attempt to heat him up at all.

Cincinnati’s blitz rate was a season-low 11.4 percent against the Knights, down from a season rate of 21.6 percent. It was 30.8 percent against Plumlee for the first quarter-plus but was graded as 0 percent against Keene. (All blitz-rate statistics are courtesy TruMedia.)

The Bearcats have had success getting to the quarterback without blitzing, but that wasn’t the case in Orlando. Cincinnati had just one sack for minus-3 yards, and while it did record seven tackles for loss, those resulted in just minus-11 yards. Over-pursuit can be a dangerous game against a speedy, dynamic offense like UCF that can counter with misdirection, but it’s not as if laying back worked either. In fact, it seemed to put the Bearcats on their heels and allowed UCF to be the aggressor upfront. The Knights averaged 1.92 yards before contact, according to TruMedia, the second-highest of the season for Cincinnati’s defense (USF: 2.74) and above UC’s 1.47 season average.

Anytime the Bearcats get gashed on the ground, the three-man defensive front tends to get trotted out as the scapegoat by fans. I get that to a certain degree, but how much of a difference does a four-man front make in this game, against a team with so much speed and emphasis on the edges? The bigger focus to me is where those second- and third-level linebackers and safeties are lining up, and how often they’re able to stack the box, plug the gaps and blitz into the backfield. For whatever reason, Cincinnati couldn’t or wouldn’t do that Saturday, which was an even more glaring flaw against a backup, inexperienced quarterback.

3. Ben Bryant has to be better

Fickell stood by his starting quarterback after the loss, just as he has all season. Considering Bryant won the QB competition over Evan Prater, and the fact that neither Fickell nor offensive coordinator Gino Guidugli has given any inclination of benching Bryant for Prater since, the only reasonable assumption is that the coaching staff believes Bryant gives this team the best chance to win. (Based on what I’ve seen in practice and discussions I’ve had with those around the program, I don’t disagree.) So barring an injury or sudden change of heart, Bryant is going to remain the Bearcats’ quarterback.

But in order for Cincinnati to bounce back, Bryant will have to be better. He has shown what he’s capable of as a passer, particularly in the first few weeks of the season, and while it was evident in flashes against UCF, he needs to be more consistent.

Bryant alternates between throwing pinpoint, NFL-caliber dimes to poorly missed overthrows too often, with a completion percentage of 62.3 percent and 7.8 yards per attempt. He patiently goes through his progressions and keeps his eyes downfield, but that can result in him holding the ball too long and taking bad sacks, like the safety on Saturday. His play-clock management can improve too. He has been flagged for too many delay of games, or forced the team to burn timeouts to avoid them.

It is not all bad, by any means. Bryant finished with decent numbers (25-for-45 for 298 yards and one TD). Once the offense finally got going late in the second half he went 6-for-9 for 77 yards and a touchdown on a go-ahead scoring drive to close out the third quarter. He has had three games with 300-plus yards in addition to coming just short in Orlando, and his 257.4 yards per game would be the most by a UC quarterback since 2015. Bryant has had some untimely drops from his receivers, including what should have been a touchdown to Nick Mardner at SMU and two more against UCF that would have gone for first downs. Having a highly touted hometown hero behind him in Prater has only amped the scrutiny and criticism, which comes with the territory, although it does not justify the malice directed at him on social media.

The fact of the matter is there are currently 100 qualified passing quarterbacks in college football, and by most standard metrics — yards per attempt, completion percentage, QB rating — Bryant is an average, middle-of-the-pack passer. If this team is going to maximize its offense with the collection of receiving weapons and pass-blocking stability it has, that starts with having a steadier, more consistent Bryant behind center.

4. Why can’t this offense find its rhythm?

This part goes beyond Bryant’s weekly performance. Balance has been an issue all season, starting out pass-heavy, then being run-dependent for a few weeks before laboring to do either until late in the game on Saturday. Ryan Montgomery’s 39-yard, fourth-quarter touchdown run was the only carry longer than 8 yards against UCF, and Cincinnati finished with just 35 net rushing yards, as well as 0 snaps for Corey Kiner and a curious explanation as to why. There were no jet sweeps and only a few screens and deep shots against a man-cover scheme that was stacking the box, all plays that might have helped to open up a run game with just 14 designed carries.

After stalling and settling for a pair of red zone field goals in the first half, the passing game did get going on a pair of touchdown drives, with Bryant finding Tre Tucker over the middle on some shallow crosses and tight end Josh Whyle split out wide in one-on-one coverage. But why did it take so long to take advantage of those matchups? Whyle and fellow tight end Leonard Taylor were only targeted a combined seven times on 45 passes, and just once through the first 43 minutes. Following the game, Tucker and Bryant talked about needing to start faster and have everyone on the same page sooner. What does that look like from a play-calling and execution perspective, and what’s holding it back?

A change at quarterback doesn’t appear imminent, and until that changes, the obvious, low-hanging option doesn’t apply. And anyone suggesting a change at coordinator — for a second-year play-caller and first-year coordinator on a 6-2 team with the equity in the program Guidugli has earned — is being overly hasty and reactionary, not to mention completely unrealistic with four games left. But whatever the explanation or solution, the Bearcats need to find a way to light a spark against Navy this weekend.

UC has shown that at its best, it’s more than capable of playing winning football — offensively and defensively. The team just hasn’t found that gear often enough this season. If Cincinnati is going to stay in the AAC title race and remain in the mix for the Group of 5’s spot in the Cotton Bowl, it will require marked improvement and consistency for a team that has been trending in the wrong direction since the start of conference play.

(Top photo: Kareem Elgazzar / The Cincinnati Enquirer Sentinel via USA Today)

Justin Williams covers college football and basketball for The Athletic. He was previously a beat reporter covering the Cincinnati Bearcats, and prior to that he worked as a senior editor for Cincinnati Magazine. Follow Justin on Twitter/X @williams_justin Follow Justin on Twitter @williams_justin